The
Yankees sit 4.5 games back of the
Rays in the
AL East and
1.5 games behind the
Red Sox for the
Wild Card (the
Twins are in between, one-half game back of
Boston). One of our favorite sportswriter's,
Dan Graziano, thinks Boston just said good-bye to their season and the
AL East will be between the
Rays and
Yankees. We strongly disagree.
Last night's Yankees game epitomized how the season has gone for this team. You have two starters in
Sidney Ponson and
Darrell Rasner, who pretty much stink (though we keep hoping
Rasner can make some grand adjustment), which means the rotation can't afford to have a hiccup such as the one
Andy Pettitte had last night, or
Mike Mussina had against
Baltimore.
The
Red Sox are certainly not the same team without
Manny. He and
David Ortiz formed the most fearsome 1-2 punch in baseball. When
Manny went so did
Ortiz's protection in the order.
Mike Lowell and
Jason Bay are very good hitters, but they don't strike fear in opponent's hearts.
All that being said, the
Red Sox still have a very good lineup, and solid pitching.
Theo Epstein's mistake this deadline was not upgrading his bullpen. But the team is not inferior to the
Yankees. They are still the reigning
World Series champions and they know how to win.
Currently this is what the
AL East looks like
Rays 63-44
Red Sox 61-48
Yankees 59-49
There are 54 games left in the
Yankees schedule, against the following opponents:
Angels 9
Blue Jays 9
Mariners 3
Orioles 6
Rangers 4
Rays 6
Red Sox 6
Royals 3
Tigers 1
Twins 3
White Sox 4
12 games with the two teams in front of the
Yankees in the
East and 3 games, next week, with the
Twins, who are ahead in the
Wild Card. Plus 13 more games with teams in 1st place (the
White Sox and
Angels).
So let's try to figure out how the
Yankees will do in those games.
Angels 9 games...the Yankees stink against the Angels
3-6
Blue Jays 9 games...depends if they have to face Halladay and Burnett, but we'll go
6-3
Mariners 3 games..should sweep this one
3-0
Orioles 6 games..they've been a nemesis
3-3
Rangers 4 games.....their pitching is still bad
3-1Rays 6 games....tough pitching, but we think experience will out
4-2Red Sox 6 games...Beckett can only go so many times
4-2Royals 3 games...getting worse as the year goes on
2-1Tigers 1 game...a make up...coin flip
1-0Twins 3 games...on the road...tough
1-2White Sox 4 games...at home 2-2 or 3-1...difficult, well go out on a limb
3-1So that means the
Yankees would go 33-21 and finish 92-70. Ironically, we predict 93 wins before the season started. Will 92 wins mean enough for a playoff spot though? Just for the AL East, the
Rays would have to go, at the most, 28-27 and the
Red Sox would have to finish no better than 30-23 for the Yankees to capture the division. That would also leave the
Yankees ahead of the
Red Sox in the
Wild Card race, meaning the
Twins would have to finish no better than 31-23.
12 games over .500 could get the
Yankees to the playoffs. They're capable of it, but we're not sure they can do it unless
Ian Kennedy,
Al Aceves,
Phil Hughes, or whomever can step it up in the rotation. It should make for interesting dog days of Summer.
Labels: 2 Months to Go, Al Aceves, Boston Red Sox, Dan Graziano, Ian Kennedy, Manny Ramirez, Phil Hughes, Tampa Rays, The Pennant Race
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