Rays Sting Red Sox to the Brink

Joe Maddon knows the history. He has seen what the Red Sox have done in the past. A comeback from a 3-0 deficit to the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS that led to a World Series championship. A comeback from a 3-1 deficit to the Indians in last year's ALCS that led to another title. After last night's Rays 13-4 blow out of the Red Sox, Maddon's Tampa squad is in the same position. An American League pennant is in their grasp. Now they have to finish it off.

Carl Crawford (5) and Willy Aybar (4) combined to out hit the Red Sox (7) last night as Tim Wakefield knuckled under. For the second straight game the Rays scored early and often, and didn't let up. Wakefield didn't make it out of the third inning and was charged with five earned runs. Manny DelCarmen gave up the same amount in just a third of an inning. Meanwhile, Andy Sonnanstine gave the bullpen a rest with a solid 7.1 innings pitched.

Carlos Pena ignited the Rays attack with a 2-run home run in the first and Evan Longoria added a solo shot. Aybar, who drove in 5 runs, also homered.

Box Score

But beware Rays. The Yankees won game 3 of the 2004 ALCS, 19-8. Getting that last victory is not a given.

James Shields was originally slated to start game 5, but Joe Maddon has switched to Scott Kazmir instead. Kazmir was hammered in game 2, and all season, by the Sox, but we understand the thinking here. If Kazmir loses, Maddon will still have Shields, who pitched very well in losing game 1, to try to close things out at home in game 6.

The Red Sox will be without third baseman Mike Lowell for the rest of the season. Last year's WS MVP has opted for season ending hip surgery on Monday.

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Spoiler Alert

This is a huge weekend in the AL East race. The Rays open a three game series tonight with the Yankees at the Stadium, while the Red Sox host the Blue Jays for a four game series at Fenway Park. The Yankees certainly didn't expect to be in a spoiler position in their final homestand of the "House that Ruth Built", but they could have a major impact on the outcome of both the AL East and wildcard races. They certainly have been spoilers for the Rays so far this season, winning 9 of 15 games, including 2 of 3 last week in Tampa.

The Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball, having won 11 of their last 12 games, and have beaten the Red Sox in 7 of 11 meetings this season. The two teams have seven games remaining between.

The pitching match ups for the Yankees-Rays series are as follows:

Friday - Matt Garza vs. Sidney Ponson
Saturday - James Shields vs. Mike Mussina
Sunday - Edwin Jackson vs. Carl Pavano (Our final trip to the Stadium)

The Rays will get a lift offensively with the return of Evan Longoria from the 15-day DL.

The pitching probables for Blue Jays-Red Sox:

Friday - David Purcey vs. Tim Wakefield
Saturday(1) - A.J. Burnett vs. Paul Byrd
Saturday(2) - Jessie Litsch vs. Bartolo Colon
Sunday - Roy Halladay vs. Jon Lester

Burnett, Litsch, and Halladay will each be pitching on three day's rest.


In the AL Central/wildcard race, the Twins travel to Baltimore for a three game series with the Orioles. The White Sox host the Tigers in a three game series at home.

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2 Months to Go

The Yankees sit 4.5 games back of the Rays in the AL East and 1.5 games behind the Red Sox for the Wild Card (the Twins are in between, one-half game back of Boston). One of our favorite sportswriter's, Dan Graziano, thinks Boston just said good-bye to their season and the AL East will be between the Rays and Yankees. We strongly disagree.

Last night's Yankees game epitomized how the season has gone for this team. You have two starters in Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner, who pretty much stink (though we keep hoping Rasner can make some grand adjustment), which means the rotation can't afford to have a hiccup such as the one Andy Pettitte had last night, or Mike Mussina had against Baltimore.

The Red Sox are certainly not the same team without Manny. He and David Ortiz formed the most fearsome 1-2 punch in baseball. When Manny went so did Ortiz's protection in the order. Mike Lowell and Jason Bay are very good hitters, but they don't strike fear in opponent's hearts.

All that being said, the Red Sox still have a very good lineup, and solid pitching. Theo Epstein's mistake this deadline was not upgrading his bullpen. But the team is not inferior to the Yankees. They are still the reigning World Series champions and they know how to win.

Currently this is what the AL East looks like

Rays 63-44
Red Sox 61-48
Yankees 59-49

There are 54 games left in the Yankees schedule, against the following opponents:

Angels 9
Blue Jays 9
Mariners 3
Orioles 6
Rangers 4
Rays 6
Red Sox 6
Royals 3
Tigers 1
Twins 3
White Sox 4

12 games with the two teams in front of the Yankees in the East and 3 games, next week, with the Twins, who are ahead in the Wild Card. Plus 13 more games with teams in 1st place (the White Sox and Angels).

So let's try to figure out how the Yankees will do in those games.

Angels 9 games...the Yankees stink against the Angels 3-6
Blue Jays 9 games...depends if they have to face Halladay and Burnett, but we'll go 6-3
Mariners 3 games..should sweep this one 3-0
Orioles 6 games..they've been a nemesis 3-3
Rangers 4 games.....their pitching is still bad 3-1
Rays 6 games....tough pitching, but we think experience will out 4-2
Red Sox 6 games...Beckett can only go so many times 4-2
Royals 3 games...getting worse as the year goes on 2-1
Tigers 1 game...a make up...coin flip 1-0
Twins 3 games...on the road...tough 1-2
White Sox 4 games...at home 2-2 or 3-1...difficult, well go out on a limb 3-1

So that means the Yankees would go 33-21 and finish 92-70. Ironically, we predict 93 wins before the season started. Will 92 wins mean enough for a playoff spot though? Just for the AL East, the Rays would have to go, at the most, 28-27 and the Red Sox would have to finish no better than 30-23 for the Yankees to capture the division. That would also leave the Yankees ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card race, meaning the Twins would have to finish no better than 31-23.

12 games over .500 could get the Yankees to the playoffs. They're capable of it, but we're not sure they can do it unless Ian Kennedy, Al Aceves, Phil Hughes, or whomever can step it up in the rotation. It should make for interesting dog days of Summer.

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AL Playoff Look - 7/20

The Rays were happy to hit the All-Star break in the midst of a 7-game skid. They've snapped out of it with 2 straight wins to leap frog the Red Sox and move back into first place in the AL East. The Red Sox have started the 2nd half with two straight losses to the Los Angeles Angeles.

Meanwhile with the Yankees winning 2 straight, things are closer in the AL East and the Wild Card is getting more interesting.

AL East
Rays 57-39 --
Red Sox 57-42 1.5
Yankees 52-45 5.5

Wild Card
Red Sox 57-42 --
Twins 55-42 1.0
Yankees 52-45 4.0
A's 51-46 5.0

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Beckham Will Top Amateur Draft

MLB.com reports that the Tampa Rays will select high school shortstop Tim Beckham with the 1st pick in this afternoon's amateur draft. The Rays have confirmed that Beckham will be the pick. The draft kicks off this afternoon at 2 P.M. EDT.

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American League Around the Horn - 4/28

We can't think of too many people who would have predicted they would wake up on April 28 and the Tampa Rays and Baltimore Orioles would be atop the AL East. Or the Detroit Tigers would be in the AL Central basement. Or for that matter, the Oakland A's would be six games over .500 and tied with the Los Angeles for first place in the AL East.

The Rays are riding the hottest streak now. They went into Boston and took three straight and have won six in a row overall. The Red Sox were starting to roll, a six game winning streak of their own. Then they lost a pair in a row before the Rays came to town and out did them. The Rays (11-6) and Yankees (9-8) are the only teams with winning records against their AL East foes.

There were some classically pitched games in the series. The Red Sox Clay Buchholz had a 1-hitter going entering Saturday's 8th inning. Two seconds later he was losing 2-1 when Dionner Navarro singled and Aki Iwamura hit his first home run of the season. On Sunday, Josh Beckett gave up 4 hits and struck out 13 in 7 innings, and lost! James Shields threw a complete game 2-hit shutout to beat him.

The Mariners lost 2 of 3 to Oakland after doing the same with the Orioles. Felix Hernandez was dominating the A's on Sunday, but gave up 4 runs in the 8th inning to take the loss in a 4-2 game.

The Rangers were involved in another blow out, except this time they were on the winning end. Vincente Padilla blanked the Twins, who had scored 12 runs on Saturday, 10-0.

The White Sox and Orioles had a great pitcher's duel on Saturday. Sox starter John Danks had a perfect game through five innings, before Adam Jones singled and eventually scored. Guillermo Quiroz then hit his first major league home run. Orioles starter Brian Burres allowed just 3 hits in 8 innings for the win. The White Sox Carlos Quentin managed to get with the bases loaded in both games to get a pair of bruises and RBI.

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Melky, Duncan Available for Opening Day

Both Melky Cabrera and Shelley Duncan are both appealing their suspensions and will be available to the Yankees for opening day. Because of scheduling, Bob Watson won't be able to meet with the pair until he returns from MLB's trip to Japan (March 28th), meaning it won't happen until after opening day.
















Despite alleged video evidence to the contrary, Melky maintains that he did not throw any punches during the scrum.

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