Spoiler Alert

This is a huge weekend in the AL East race. The Rays open a three game series tonight with the Yankees at the Stadium, while the Red Sox host the Blue Jays for a four game series at Fenway Park. The Yankees certainly didn't expect to be in a spoiler position in their final homestand of the "House that Ruth Built", but they could have a major impact on the outcome of both the AL East and wildcard races. They certainly have been spoilers for the Rays so far this season, winning 9 of 15 games, including 2 of 3 last week in Tampa.

The Blue Jays are the hottest team in baseball, having won 11 of their last 12 games, and have beaten the Red Sox in 7 of 11 meetings this season. The two teams have seven games remaining between.

The pitching match ups for the Yankees-Rays series are as follows:

Friday - Matt Garza vs. Sidney Ponson
Saturday - James Shields vs. Mike Mussina
Sunday - Edwin Jackson vs. Carl Pavano (Our final trip to the Stadium)

The Rays will get a lift offensively with the return of Evan Longoria from the 15-day DL.

The pitching probables for Blue Jays-Red Sox:

Friday - David Purcey vs. Tim Wakefield
Saturday(1) - A.J. Burnett vs. Paul Byrd
Saturday(2) - Jessie Litsch vs. Bartolo Colon
Sunday - Roy Halladay vs. Jon Lester

Burnett, Litsch, and Halladay will each be pitching on three day's rest.


In the AL Central/wildcard race, the Twins travel to Baltimore for a three game series with the Orioles. The White Sox host the Tigers in a three game series at home.

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2 Months to Go

The Yankees sit 4.5 games back of the Rays in the AL East and 1.5 games behind the Red Sox for the Wild Card (the Twins are in between, one-half game back of Boston). One of our favorite sportswriter's, Dan Graziano, thinks Boston just said good-bye to their season and the AL East will be between the Rays and Yankees. We strongly disagree.

Last night's Yankees game epitomized how the season has gone for this team. You have two starters in Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner, who pretty much stink (though we keep hoping Rasner can make some grand adjustment), which means the rotation can't afford to have a hiccup such as the one Andy Pettitte had last night, or Mike Mussina had against Baltimore.

The Red Sox are certainly not the same team without Manny. He and David Ortiz formed the most fearsome 1-2 punch in baseball. When Manny went so did Ortiz's protection in the order. Mike Lowell and Jason Bay are very good hitters, but they don't strike fear in opponent's hearts.

All that being said, the Red Sox still have a very good lineup, and solid pitching. Theo Epstein's mistake this deadline was not upgrading his bullpen. But the team is not inferior to the Yankees. They are still the reigning World Series champions and they know how to win.

Currently this is what the AL East looks like

Rays 63-44
Red Sox 61-48
Yankees 59-49

There are 54 games left in the Yankees schedule, against the following opponents:

Angels 9
Blue Jays 9
Mariners 3
Orioles 6
Rangers 4
Rays 6
Red Sox 6
Royals 3
Tigers 1
Twins 3
White Sox 4

12 games with the two teams in front of the Yankees in the East and 3 games, next week, with the Twins, who are ahead in the Wild Card. Plus 13 more games with teams in 1st place (the White Sox and Angels).

So let's try to figure out how the Yankees will do in those games.

Angels 9 games...the Yankees stink against the Angels 3-6
Blue Jays 9 games...depends if they have to face Halladay and Burnett, but we'll go 6-3
Mariners 3 games..should sweep this one 3-0
Orioles 6 games..they've been a nemesis 3-3
Rangers 4 games.....their pitching is still bad 3-1
Rays 6 games....tough pitching, but we think experience will out 4-2
Red Sox 6 games...Beckett can only go so many times 4-2
Royals 3 games...getting worse as the year goes on 2-1
Tigers 1 game...a make up...coin flip 1-0
Twins 3 games...on the road...tough 1-2
White Sox 4 games...at home 2-2 or 3-1...difficult, well go out on a limb 3-1

So that means the Yankees would go 33-21 and finish 92-70. Ironically, we predict 93 wins before the season started. Will 92 wins mean enough for a playoff spot though? Just for the AL East, the Rays would have to go, at the most, 28-27 and the Red Sox would have to finish no better than 30-23 for the Yankees to capture the division. That would also leave the Yankees ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card race, meaning the Twins would have to finish no better than 31-23.

12 games over .500 could get the Yankees to the playoffs. They're capable of it, but we're not sure they can do it unless Ian Kennedy, Al Aceves, Phil Hughes, or whomever can step it up in the rotation. It should make for interesting dog days of Summer.

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Around the Horn - 7/31

The Phillies and Mets continue to play leap frog in the NL East. The Phils took a half game lead last night with an 8-5 win over the Nationals. Chase Utley and Shane Victorino both went deep to help Jamie Moyer pick up his 240th win, 12th best (tied with Frank Tanana) among left-handers.

The Mets meanwhile couldn't hold an early lead and red hot Mike Pelfrey was cooled off by the Marlins 7-5. The Marlins sit just 1.5 games back.

Garret Anderson put up a 4-hit, 4 RBI night as the Angels beat the Red Sox 9-2. It was LA's second three game sweep of the Red Sox this month. The Rays gained a game on Boston with a 3-2 win over the Blue Jays.

Colorado still can't make up its collective mind as to buy or sell today. Had they lost three straight to the Pirates they probably would have been sellers. But the Rockies snapped the 2-game losing streak last night, 7-4, as Aaron Cook won his 14th game.

Dan Haren won his 11th game of the season in the Diamondbacks 7-3 win over the Padres. That kept them one game ahead of the Dodgers, who got a complete game shutout from Chad Billingsley in a 4-0 win over the Giants.

The Diamondbacks have to wonder what their offense would be like had they kept Carlos Quentin. The White Sox outfielder continued his breakout season with his 28th home run and drove in 4 runs in the Chisox 8-3 win over the Twins. Quentin has 83 RBI for the season.

The Cubs beat the Brewers for the third straight night, this time 7-2, behind a strong outing by Ryan Dempster, who picked up his 12th win. The Brewers will try to salvage the finale of the series, but they're up against Rich Harden.

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The Wild Wild West, and East, and Central

When Bud Selig sprang the Wild Card on the world, he could not have envisioned a final week such as the one taking place in the National League. All 3 division races as well as the Wild Card are coming down to the wire.

NL East

The Mets got off to a fast start, struggled at times, but still manged to hold a healthy lead over the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. Then the Phillies beat the Mets in 8 straight meetings and the Mets stopped pitching in their other games. The bullpen, once a strength, has become the biggest problem.

After the Mets got swept by the Nationals, they had a match up with the Cardinals last night. The Mets dominated the Central Division this year and hoped to get healthy on the ailing cards. Pedro Martinez took the hill for the Mets and gave them his longest outing this season, 7 innings. But the hot Met bats suddenly went cold and Joel Pineiro shut them down for 8 innings in a 3-0 Cards win.

Meanwhile in the city of brotherly love (boy is that an oxymoron), the Phillies got home runs from Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell to beat John Smoltz and the Braves, 6-4. The Mets and Phillies go into the weekend in a flat footed tie for 1st place.

The Mets open a 3 game series with the woeful Marlins tonight. Here are the pitching match ups:

Byung Kim vs. Oliver Perez
Chris Seddon vs. John Maine
Dontrelle Willis vs. Tom Glavine

The Mets have a clear advantage in 2 of the 3 games, so you would think the Mets would win 2 of 3 minimum. But with the current state of their bullpen, they might just be lucky to win 1 of 3.

The Phillies host the pesky Washington Nationals for 3 games. The (g)Nats helped the Phillies out earlier this week with a 3 game sweep of the Mets. Here are the pitching match ups:

Tim Redding vs. Cole Hammels
Matt Chico vs. Adam Eaton
Jason Bergmann vs. Jamie Moyer

The Phillies have a big advantage tonight with their ace going, but the next 2 are toss-ups. Kyle Lohse will replace Adam Eaton earlier if Eaton falters.

We picked the Phillies to win the NL East prior to the season and even in August, we still felt we had made a stupid pick. People like Guillermo Mota are starting to make us look real smart.

NL Central

Milwaukee sprinted out early while the Cubbies were busy fighting each other. When the Brewers started to falter, the Cubs, and the Cardinals started to reel them in. While the Cards faded, as expected, the Cubs kept firing on all cylinders. Now its the Brewers doing the chasing and it doesn't look good. The Cubs lead by 2 games with just 3 to play. The Cubs got swept by the Marlins, but the Brewers couldn't cut their lead.

The Brew Crew's biggest problem. They started a 4 game series with the San Diego Padres last night. The Pads took the opener 9-5. Meanwhile the Cubs go on the road to face a bad Reds ball club, that just got worse with the loss of Adam Dunn to knee surgery.

Here are the pitching match ups for the 2 series:

Cubs vs. Reds

Carlos Zambrano vs. Bronson Arroyo
Rich Hill vs. Aaron Harang
Ted Lilly vs. Homer Bailey

Padres vs. Brewers

Greg Maddux vs. Chris Capuano
Chris Young vs. David Bush
Brett Tomko vs. Jeff Suppan

Conclusion- the Cubs should have no problem wrapping up the division title. Nice year Brewers.

NL West and Wild Card

We've already talked about the Padres series up above, so we'll focus on the division leading Arizona Diamondbacks. We never saw this coming. We know its a weak division, but the DBacks and their ugly new uni's? They have a 1 game lead over the Pads, thanks in part to an amazing 24-9 mark against the NL East.

Arizona goes on the road for a 3 game series with the hot Colorado Rockies. The Rockies looked like they were dead in the water, but they suddenly find themselves tied with the Mets and Phillies, 1 game behind the Padres for the Wild Card lead.

Here are the series pitching probables:

Brandon Webb vs. Jeff Francis
Edgar Gonzalez vs. Mark Redman
Doug Davis vs. Ubaldo Jiminez

What a great pitching match for tonight's opener. After that you have to give the edge to the Dbacks- decidedly on Saturday, and just barely on Sunday.

The DBacks should take 2 of 3, and since the Pads should do the same this weekend, we see the DBacks hanging on for the division and the Pads taking the Wild Card. Which means either the Phils or Mets, and the Rockies are SOL.

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Angels Thump M's 8-2; Wild Card Update

Up to the second update - the Angels, behind Jered Weaver, beat the Mariners 8-2. The Yankees are a half game back in the Wild Card standings and can move into a tie with a win.

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The Pennant Race

With a little over a month to go in the season, divisions and both wild cards are up for grabs. We'll skip the AL East and wild card since we think you've already have all the info on that one. But here goes.

NL East

The Mets have had an up and down season, but have still dominated the division. It's unlikely that they won't hold on to/run away with the lead, but Philly is making it interesting. One day after beating the Mets 9-2, the Phillies rallied from a 2-0 deficit to send the game into extra innings. Ryan Howard drove the home crowd crazy with a walk-off 2-run HR. The Phils now trail the Mets by 4 games going into their contest tonight. Oliver Perez faces off against Jamie Moyer, who has really been bad of late, in tonight's game. If the Mets win the tonight and tomorrow for a 4-game split, the Phillies will walk away empty handed.

The Braves lost to the Marlins in extra innings, and remain a distant 6 games back of the Mets.

NL Central

Big series between the Cubs and Brewers. The Brewers lead the division for much of the season before hitting the skids. The Brewers lead 3-0 behind Jeff Suppan last night. But the Brewers pen took over in the 7th and immediately gave up 4 runs. The Cubs 5-3 win pushed the Brewers into 3rd place, 2.5 back. The defending champion Cardinals remained just 2 back with a 7-0 win over Houston. Great match up in tonight's game, Ben Sheets vs. Carlos Zambrano.

The Cards have a tough one as they pit Kip Wells against Roy Oswalt.

NL West

Another big 1-2 division series. Arizona against San Diego. The Padres won 3-1 Monday night behind Jake Peavy and last night beat up Brandon Webb in a 6-4 win. The Pads now trail the division leading Dbacks by just 1 game. Young vs. old tonight (no, not either of the Chris Young's) - Micah Owings vs. Greg Maddux in the 3rd of 4 games.

The Dodgers beat the Nats 4-3 to move within 4.5 of AZ, and today picked up Esteban Loaiza off of waivers from the Oakland A's. He'll be immediately plugged into their rotation.

AL Central

The Indians bounced back from their 3 game sweep at the hands of the Yankees, by going 9-4, including winning their last 4 in a row. That put them 3.5 ahead of the Tigers, who except for this past weekend's series with the Yankees, have struggled against everyone. That included a 6-3 loss to the Kansas City Royals last night. The Tigers hope to bounce back tonight when they send rookie Andrew Miller against one-time phenom, Zack Greinke.

The Twins quietly crept to within 4.5 of the Indians, but the Tribe quickly dispatched them the last 2 nights, 8-3 and 6-5. The series concludes tonight with a great match up of Johann Santana vs. C.C. Sabathia.

AL West

Yet another series between the top 2 teams in the division. The Angels John Lackey dominated the Mariners Monday night in a 6-0 win, and battled back last night from a 5-0 deficit to win 10-6. The 2 losses dropped the Mariners 4 back of the Angels.


NL Wild Card

The Padres are the top dog right now, with a 3 game lead over the Phillies. The Dodgers are 3.5 back, while the Braves sit 5 back. We're not going to bother getting into the rest of the teams on the periphery.

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