2008 Award Predictions

Ah, that time of year again where we can look anywhere from really good to really stupid. Time to predict the award winners in each league.

American League Cy Young

C.C. SabathiaJosh Beckett was last season's winner, beating out C.C. Sabathia Josh Beckett, Fausto Carmona and Chien-Ming Wang among others. Things are a little more wide open now with Johan Santana out of the AL.
The Contenders

Josh Beckett
Fausto Carmona
Erik Bedard
C.C. Sabathia
Chien-Ming Wang
Justin Verlander
John Lackey

and the winner is....Erik Bedard. We went back and forth between Bedard and Verlander, neither of whom was outstanding in their season opener yesterday. But we feel Bedard in a pitcher's ball park will excel.
Our pick: Erik Bedard


American League MVP

Alex Rodriguez easily grabbed this award with a monster season. Magglio Ordonez would have won it in any other season. There are a lot of contenders for this award, so we're not even going to bother to name all of them. Many people it will be Grady Sizemore, who we think is not quite on par with his hype. But we do agree a centerfielder will win the award.

Our pick: Curtis Granderson


American League Rookie of the Year

Dustin Pedroia, that little..., grabbed the award last year. Joba Chamberlain, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Clay Bucholz are grabbing most of the attention. But just like the NL's winner last year, we think it's going to be a 3rd Baseman who started the season in the minors.

Our pick: Evan Longoria


American League Manager of the Year

Seattle's John McLaren is an early favorite as big things are expected of the M's. But the winner will be from a team not expected to do anything at all.

Our pick: Trey Hillman


National League Cy Young

Jake Peavy won last year's award. We always like Carlos Zambrano as one of the favorites. Then you've got Santana, Chris Young, Brandon Webb, Cole Hamels and others.

But this year we like to, quote John Sterling, "go a back-to-back, and a belly-to-belly".

Our pick: Jake Peavy


National League MVP

We were so close last year. We took Chase Utley and it was his DP partner Jimmy Rollins who won it. Again, too many contenders to mention. The guy we're going with had a rough 2nd half, but we think he'll take it over his teammate on the left side of the infield.

Our pick: Jose Reyes


National League Manager of the Year

Joe Torre could very well grab this his 1st year in LA, but we're not as impressed with the Dodgers as some. Willie Randolph has the hot seat and a favored team, which makes it difficult to win the award. Our pick is an old favorite.

Our pick: Dusty Baker

National League Rookie of the Year
Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, J.R. Towles, Geovany Soto, and Johnny Cueto are among the names being bandied about. But we think this year's winner won't fall prey to the writer bias that hit Hideki Matsui in 2003.

Our pick: Kosuke Fukudome

We can't even think of anyone in the AL right now, but our pick for Comeback Player of the Year in the NL is Pedro Martinez.

So there you have it. We'll probably know by the All-Star Break whether or not we're crazy.

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The Voters Speak

The two pro-Magglio Ordonez MVP voters - both members of the Detroit press, gave their reasons for voting for Mags instead of A-Rod.

First Tom Gage:

That voter was Jim Hawkins of the Oakland Press, who clearly saw the same season I did, and the same reasons to vote for Ordonez as I did. His vote was as much validation for mine as my vote was for his, because it meant Ordonez made the identical impression on us both.

It was such a strong impression that I couldn't dismiss it by simply saying, "Gee, I better vote for A-Rod because everyone else is."

I don't blame anybody else for not voting for Magglio, though. They didn't see him play every day. They went by the stat sheet -- as I've had to do with most MVP votes.

But I believed in the vote for Ordonez when I cast it. And now, several wondering-why phone calls later, I still believe in it.

I did it because I thought Ordonez was more valuable to his team than A-Rod was to his, but also for specific statistical reasons: such as the wide disparity between Ordonez's batting average (.363-.314) and more so because Ordonez hit .429 with runners in scoring position compared to .333 by A-Rod.

To me, that was the separating proof of value right there. The Tigers were able to depend on Ordonez with runners in scoring position far more than the Yankees were able to depend on A-Rod. Yes, Rodriguez had all those home runs, the glamour stat. Plus he had 17 more RBIs than Ordonez, but only 17.

Read the rest here.

Then there is Jim Hawkins of the Oakland Press, which is in Pontiac, Michigan, not norther California.

I certainly don't apologize for my vote. I saw all but a handful of Ordonez's 157 games this season. And, night after night after night, I witnessed a player having an MVP season.

I didn't have to depend on what I read in the paper or saw on the TV highlight shows. I saw Ordonez put on an MVP performance with my own two eyes.

Don't get me wrong: Rodriguez had a great year, too. I have no quarrel with those writers who placed A-Rod at the top of their 10-man ballots. He deserved it every bit as much as Ordonez.

What I do find disturbing, however, is the fact that four of my baseball writing colleagues didn't even see fit to place Ordonez second, voting for either Vladimir Guerrero (3) or David Ortiz (1) ahead of Magglio. What league were they watching? (the same could be said for you Jim)

But for me, the clincher - and this is huge - was the fact that Ordonez batted .429 with runners in scoring position, while Rodriguez hit .333 in such potentially game-winning situations.

Read the rest here.

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A-Rod is Not U-nanimous

Alex Rodriguez garnered all 26 of 28 first place votes to snatch up his 3rd MVP award. It's A-Rod's 2nd as a Yankee in 3 years.

We reported earlier that the voting was unanimous, but that turned out to be wrong. 2 voters, for whatever reason, selected Magglio Ordonez with their 1st place votes.

Source

UPDATE: 3:01 PM EST

The only two first-place votes that didn't go to Rodriguez were from Tom Gage of The Detroit News and Jim Hawkins of The Oakland Press in Pontiac, Mich. Biased voting anyone?

2007 AL MVP Award Voting
Player, Club	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Points
Alex Rodriguez, NYY	26	2									328
Maglio Ordonez, DET	2	22	4								258
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA		3	10	9	3	3					203
David Ortiz, BOS		1	11	6	3		3	2	1		177
Mike Lowell, BOS			1	6	2	7	4	3	2		126
Jorge Posada, NYY				3	4	6	6	3	1	2	112
Victor Martinez, CLE				1	7	5	4	2	3	1	103
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA				1	6	2	5	3	3	1	89
Carlos Pena, TB			2			2	2	3	8	5	64
Curtis Granderson, DET				1	2	1		5	1	10	51
Derek Jeter, NYY					1	1	1		1		17
Grady Sizemore, CLE						1		1	3	1	15
J.J. Putz, SEA				1				1	1		12
C.C. Sabathia, CLE							1	1	2		11
Torii Hunter, MIN								1	1		5
Orlando Cabrera, LAA								1		2	5
Bobby Abreu, NYY							1				4
John Lackey, LAA							1				4
Placido Polanco, DET								1		1	4
Justin Morneau, MIN								1			3
Chone Figgins, LAA									1	1	3
Josh Beckett, BOS										2	2
Fausto Carmona, CLE										1	1
Frank Thomas, TOR										1	1

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First Half Awards

Time to see where we are at as MLB heads towards the All-Star break next week. Looking back at my pre-season predictions, what the hell was I thinking picking the Reds to win the NL Central?

Here are how the division races shape up and what we predicted here at My Pinstripes.

AL East - Well yeah, I took the Yankees to win it with 97 victories. That's looking really woeful right now. The Red Sox, who we thought would come in 2nd, have played some mediocre ball for am month, but not as bad as the stumbling Yankees and Jays.

AL Central - We took the Tigers to win it with 95 wins. As we expected, the Indians and Tigers are battling it out in a race that will probably come down to the wire. We were on the money with the White Sox being sellers as the trade deadline approached.

AL West - On the money so far with the Angels, though 93 wins is going to turn out to be more like 98-100. The Angels lineup is filled with .300 hitters, good starting pitching and a strong bullpen. There's no reason to think they won't represent the AL in the World Series. The Red Sox get a lot of hype because of their starting rotation, but the Angels are a better all around team. The Mariners have been a big surprise, currently sitting 11 games over .500.

Revised Prediction: Red Sox, Tigers, Angels for the division, Indians for Wild Card.


NL East - We underestimated the Mets ability to produce solid pitching from scraps - i.e. John Maine and Oliver Perez. We also overestimated the Phillies, which is always easy to do. Despite a rough stretch in June, the Mets are still 11 over .500 and the cream of the crop in the NL East. The Phillies and Braves will compete, but there's no catching the Mets.

NL Central - Oh God, that awful Reds pick. Must have not had coffee that morning. The Reds stink and are now looking for a new manager. We also did not give enough attention to the Milwaukee Brewers who are chock full of young talent, lead by masher, Prince Fielder. And Ben Sheets is looking like the real deal again. The Cubbies have survived in-fighting and are hanging in there despite a shaky starting staff and bullpen. The Astros, Cards, and Reds are all garbage.

NL West - No Bruce Bochy, but the San Diego Padres sit atop the NL West this afternoon. Bochy is having a miserable time with a miserable Giants club and a miserable Barroid Bonds. The Dodgers, our pre-season pick, sit one game back. Somehow, a young, mediocre Dbacks team is only 2.5 back. They showed against the Yankees just how green and lousy they are. The Rockies had the huge sweep of the Yankees, but have looked like crap since. Our pick here will still be LA to rise above it all.

Revised Prediction: Mets, Brewers, Dodgers for division, Padres for Wild Card.


Individual Recognition

Our AL pre-season predictions were as follows: Cy Young - Johann Santana, MVP - Travis Hafner, Rookie of the Year - Delmon Young

Johann Santana's win-loss record is nothing to write home about, but his 3 straight wins have made it a lot better (9-6). What is to brag about is a 2.76 ERA and 120 Ks in 114 innings pitched. We still feel Santana will be the Cy Young winner when all is said and done, but for the 1st half, we have to give it to Justin Verlander. The Tiger's 2nd year starter is 9-3, 3.18, including a June 12th no-hitter against the Brewers. He's got 90 Ks in 102 IP and a miniscule 1.17 WHIP. Consideration also goes to C.C. Sabathia (12-2, 3.20 116 Ks) and Josh Beckett (11-2, 3.38).

Travis Hafner started out a house afire, hitting .338-5-16 in April. He's hit just .224-8-36 since. His teammate Victor Martinez though has stepped up to MVP status. V-Mart's .325-14-63 tops all 3 team categories. He also has 20 doubles and a .920 OPS. Vlad Guerrero is enjoying another "Vladian" type season. 14 HRs and 73 RBI to go along with a .328 average. Tiger teammates Magglio Ordonez (.369-13-68) and Gary Sheffield (.290-18-52) have helped take Detroit to the top of the AL Central.

But the numbers cannot lie - the first half MVP is A-Rod. While the Yankees are not in any contention, imagine how many out they would be if A-Rod weren't have the season he is. Joe Torre would probably already be home. The official numbers, which may not change if A-Rod's hamstring is bad, .328-28-80 with 74 runs scored. He's also playing gold glove caliber defense at the hot corner.

Our pre-sason pick, Delmon Young (.271-9-44, 6 SB), has been having a decent season for the Devil Rays, especially since he started slowly. The Red Sox have a duo of the much ballyhooed (and so far, overhyped) Dice-K and hobbitt Dustin Pedroia. Matsuzaka (9-5, 3.80) has pitched well, but has received plenty of run support. Pedroia nearly lost his job in April to Alex Cora, but Terry Francona stuck with him and it has paid off. Pedroia hit .4`5 in May and .333 in June.

KC's Brian Bannister was just named AL Rookie of the Month after winning 4 games in 6 starts with a 2.75 ERA. The Mets wish they still had the kid who overall is 5-4, 3.58. He won't get enough attention in the small market though to garner enough media buzz.

Several injuries to Angels players gave Reggie Willits the opportunity to play ever day and he has taken full advantage. He's hitting .337 with 39 runs scored and 18 stolen bases in 66 games. Orioles' pitcher Jeremy Guthrie was released by the Indians after failing to live up to the hype he had gotten in the organization. Thing is though, he never really got the chance to prove himself at the major league level. He certainly has this year. He's 4-2, 2.63 in 16 starts. 10 no decisions caused by a lack of run support and one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Over the last 2 months, Guthrie has made 11 starts, going 2-2. His ERA over that time? 2.01, yes I said 2.01. He's also average more than 7 innings a start and is our 1st half AL Rookie of the Year. Look for Dice-K to still get the year end award thanks to the overhype.


Our AL Manager of the Year to this year would have been Mike Hargrove for his job with the M's, but being he has resigned, will give it to perennial contender, Mike Scioscia.

The National League 1st half MVP award goes to Jose Reyes, whose playmaking, offensively and defensively, sparks the Mets. His smile and love for the game also keeps his teammates loose. The Carloses, Delgado and Beltran have been a big disappointment in the 1st half, making Reyes' play all the more important. As the Yankees will attest, when Reyes gets on base, it's pure chaos for the opponent. His numbers- a .316 average, 40 steals, 45 walks, 50 runs scored, and 34 RBI. He could also garner a gold glove this year.

The Rockies' Matt Holliday is a pure hitter, leading the NL with a .347 average. He also has 14 HR and 65 RBI. Phillies' 2nd sacker Chase Utley, our pre-season pick, is a guy any team would love to have. He's been the one consistent for the Phils this year. His .322-15-65 is a worthy of a corner infielder. The Brewers' Prince Fielder has boosted their resurgence with 27 HRs and 66 RBI. Miguel Cabrera (.330-17-57) and Jimmy Rollins (.285-14-49, 15 SB, 10 doubles, 14 triples) are also viable candidates.

The NL Cy Young award right now would go to Jake Peavy in a close one with Brad Penny. Peavy (9-2, 2.09) has 119 Ks in 112 IP. The NL is hitting just .214 against him, while not drawing walks either (1.05 WHIP).

Penny is having an outstanding season for LA. A 10-1 record with a major league leading 2.00 ERA. He's a 1.12 WHIP to go with a .233 opponent's average. Peavy's teammate Chris Young (8-3, 2.14) also is a top contender with an opponents average of .197 and 90 Ks in 96.2 innings. Another screw up by the Texas Rangers in dealing the 6'10" right hander. John Maine, Brandon Webb, Ben Sheets, and Brewer's closer Francisco Cordero are among the others candidates.

NL Rookie of the Year would belong to Hunter Pence of the Astros. A .342 average with 9 HR and 38 RBI, 34 runs scored, and 7 stolen bases. Troy Tulowitzki (.278-8-36, 47 runs), James Loney (.393-3-14 in 56 ABs), and Josh Hamilton (.273-13-28) were also in the mix.

Our NL Manager of the "half" Year is Milwaukee's Ned Yost. Entering play today, the Brew Crew has the best record in the NL and the best mark at home.

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2007 Award Predictions

Even though I have all 4 teams in the NCAA final four, I will not get cocky. Picking the AL and NL MVP award winners is extremely difficult. But here goes:

American League

MVP: 2006 winner was Twins' 1st Baseman Justin Morneau

The usual names will be bandied about - A-Rod, Big Papi, Vlad, etc. I hate picking a DH, but today's pick is Indians DH Travis Hafner. "Pronk" finished 5th in 2005, 8th in 2006. Hafner's last 3 seasons have been impressive to say the least. His HRs have increased from 28-33-42 and his RBI has been a consistent 109-108-117.
2007 Prediction - Travis Hafner, Cle

Cy Young: 2006 winner was the Twins' Johann Santana

This is an easier choice for me than in the past. There's no reason not to think that Santana, who won in 2004, in addition to last season, won't win it again. He should win the triple crown of pitching (wins, ERA, strikeouts) with relative ease.
2007 Prediction - Johann Santana, Minn

Rookie of the Year: 2006 winner was Tigers' Justin Verlander

Dice-K has the most press. Alex Gordon has the pedigree. But Delmon Young has the bat. Young gave his rep a black eye with his tossed bat into a minor league ump and joining fellow prospects like Elijah Dukes in complaining about their handling by the D-Rays. But this kid can flat out hit. And will.

2007 Prediction - Delmon Young, TB

National League

MVP: 2006 winner was Phillies' 1st Baseman Ryan Howard

Howard should put up big numbers again and could very easily win back-to-back awards. The Mets big 4 of Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and Delgado will contend and of course, the Cards' Albert Pujols is still the man to beat. That all being said, a guy with less publicity in Philly will get the award. Chase Utley has blossomed into one of the premiere hitters in the game. The 28-yr old has average .301-30-103 the last 2 seasons and will benefit from having Howard hitting behind him.

2007 Prediction - Chase Utley, Phi


Cy Young: 2006 winner was DBack's Brandon Webb

The Cards Chris Carpenter won in '05 and finished 3rd last year. No reason to think he won't be in the top 5 again. The D-Train came in 2nd in '05, but was mediocre with a decent Marlins team last year. He'll probably have a bounce back year. Roy Oswalt pitches in a hitter's park, but is solid. The prediction here is the same as it was last year; the Cubbie's Carlos Zambrano. Zambrano finished 3rd in the voting last year and has topped 200 IP 4 straight years. He's also struck out 200+ hitters over the last 2 seasons as he gets ready to pitch for a huge contract extension.

2007 Prediction - Carlos Zambrano, Chi


Rookie of the Year: 2006 winner was Marlin's SS Hanley Ramirez

The Met's Mike Pelfrey, the Reds' HomerBailey, and the Brewers' Ryan Braun bring plenty to the table, but the DBacks Chris Young takes the prize. The Dbacks have a lot of good young talent (Upton, Gonzalez, Drew, etc.), but the centerfielder has power and speed and will produce both. Think the White Sox wish they still had him?

2007 Prediction - Chris Young, AZ

There you have it. For what it's worth.

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