The Pennant Race - 9/28

It's been an amazing final weekend of the 2008 season, with several playoff spots still up for grabs. The Phillies clinched the NL East with a win over Washington on Saturday, but the Mets victory, combined with the Brewers loss, meant the wildcard would come down the final Sunday, and possibly Monday.

The Marlins had crushed the Mets dreams in 2007, jumping all over then Met Tom Glavine in the first inning and cruised to an 8-1 victory. Johan Santana had put the Mets into position with a masterful shutout on Saturday. Sunday was a match of a pair of left-handers, Scott Olsen for the Marlins, and Oliver Perez for the Mets.

The two teams were scoreless in the sixth inning when the Marlins finally broke through. Cameron Maybin led off with a double and scored on John Baker's single for a 1-0 lead. Jorge Cantu followed with a single and both runners moved up on Mike Jacobs fly out. Jerry Manuel elected to intentionally walk Dan Uggla, but reliever Joe Smith walked Josh Willingham to force in a run. Smith wiggled out of further trouble and the Mets came right back.

Robinson Cancel started the home half of the sixth with a walk. One batter later Carlos Beltran drove the Shea crowd crazy with a game tying 2-run home run, his 27th of the season.

Meanwhile in Milwaukee, the Brewers trailed the Cubs 1-0 on an unearned run. CC Sabathia was doing everything he could to win it for the Brewers, but Milwaukee couldn't break through against an array of Cubs pitchers.

Carlos Zambrano was originally slated to start the game for Chicago, but Lou Piniella end up opting for Angel Guzman, who gave him two innings of work. Chad Gaudin, Neall Cotts, and Kevin Hart kept Milwaukee off the board through six innings.

Veteran Ray Durham greeted reliever Scott Marshall with a lead off double in the seventh. Ryan Braun's ground out moved Durham up to third, and Prince Fielder was intentionally walked to set up a potential double play. Piniella went to Mike Wuertz, who walked J.J. Hardy to load the bases. Wuertz then struck out Craig Counsell for the second out, but walked Corey Hart to force in the tying run.

The Marlins and Mets moved to the eighth inning back at Shea, still tied at 2-2. But Wes Helms connected off of Scot Schoenweis for just his fifth home run of the season and a 3-2 Marlins lead. Two batters later, Dan Uggla slugged his 32nd home run of the year off of Luis Ayala for a 4-2 Florida advantage.

With the Mets falling behind, the Brewers took it to the Cubs in the eighth. Mike Cameron singled with one out and two batters later, second year sensation Ryan Braun belted his 37th home run of the year off of Cubs set up man Bobby Howry. Braun has 71 home runs in 264 big league games.

At Shea, Jose Reyes smacked a double off of Kevin Gregg with two outs in the eighth. A Beltran walk brought up the Mets biggest hitter in the second half, Carlos Delgado. Fredi Gonzalez countered with lefty specialist Arthur Rhodes. Delgado drilled a 1-1 shot to left, but the ball stayed in the park for the third out of the inning.

In Milwaukee, Sabathia completed his seventh game in 17 Brewers starts, Ryan Theriot singled with one away, but Sabathia got Derrek Lee to bounce into a game ending double play.

A quite Shea Stadium held their breath and heads, and prayed as Matt Lindstrom came on in the ninth for the Marlins. David Wright popped out to second base and Endy Chavez hit a comebacker for the first two outs of the inning. Damon Easley drew a walk, giving the Mets on more shot with the tying run at the plate, but Ryan Church flied out to deep center to end the ball game and another disappointing Mets season.


Over in the American League, the AL Central was coming down to the last Sunday. With a half-game separating the two teams, the White Sox needed a win in order to play their 162nd game against the Tigers on Monday. The game being a make up of an earlier rain out. The Twins held destiny in their own hands, knowing that a win would ensure them, at the very least, of a one game playoff on Tuesday.

Pitching was the name of the game for both teams. Chicago's ace Mark Buehrle pitched like one. After losing the first two games against the Indians, the White Sox needed their best to give them his best. Buerhle did just that, allowing one run over seven innings to earn his 15th win of the season. Paul Konerko's solo home run highlighted a 3-run second inning that gave the White Sox the lead for good. Jermaine Dye added some big insurance with a 2-run single in the seventh before Matt Thornton and Bobby Jenks sealed the win.

Meanwhile in Minnesota, the Twins had struggled against the Royals for two days, but Scott Baker was huge on Sunday. The Twins right-hander allowed just four hits, and struck out eight over seven innings, and the Twins rolled to a 6-0 victory. Joe Mauer and Delmon Young drove in two runs each for the Twins, who won their 88th game.

Gavin Floyd will start for Chicago on Monday, while former White Sox star Freddy Garcia goes for the Tigers. Should the White Sox win, they will face the Twins in a one game showdown in Chicago on Tuesday.

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The Rotations - NL East

Mets

Guaranteed Spots: Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez, John Maine, Oliver Perez

The Mets made huge news when they dealt for, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball in Santana. It didn't cost the Mets much in talent, but they are going to have to fork over about $140 million. But the Mets and their soon-to-be new ballpark needed an ace and drawing card, and they got them both in one fell swoop.

Martinez came back from arm surgery to appear in 5 games, and posted a 2.57 ERA with 32 K's in 28 innings. He may not have the velocity he once had, but with Santana's arrival, he no longer has to be the ace.

El Duque has been injury prone, he missed the '06 post-season, but he has made 53 starts over the last 2 years. He did a great job for the Mets last season, posting a 3.72 ERA while holding opponents to a .206 batting average. El Duque is a winner, pure and simple.

Maine blossomed in his 2 seasons in Flushing, after having an up and down time in Baltimore. He wore down in the final months of the season as he far exceed (190 IP) his highest innings total for his career. Maine posted a 15-10 mark and was huge in the 2nd to last night game of the season, went he brilliantly pitched the Mets back into contention with a win over the Marlins. There's no reason to think he won't keep getting better.

Perez has been an enigma throughout his major league career. Early on, it looked like he and Jake Peavy would make a remarkable 1-2 tandem for the Padres for years to come. But during a poor sophomore season, the Pads shipped him to Pittsburgh where he battled control and attitude problems. He was brilliant in 2004, striking out 239 in 196 innings, and posted a 2.98 ERA to go along with a 12-10 record. Maybe it was the huge increase in innings pitched - we'll never know - but Perez pitched his way out of Pittsburgh with miserable '05 and '06 seasons. Though he sometimes backslid, he put up a very good season for the Mets last year - 15-10, 3.56, 174 K's. The Mets will need him to do it again in 2008.

Mike Pelfrey and Tony Armas Jr., who the Mets just signed to a minor league deal, will be among those waiting for an injury or prolonged ineffectiveness to get some starts.


Phillies

Guaranteed Spots: Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, Adam Eaton

Myers was moved to the closer role when Tom Gordon went down last year. He remained in that role when Gordon returned, giving the Phillies a stronger bullpen. But with the off-season acquisition of Brad Lidge, Myers was returned to the rotation. He averaged 206 innings the prior 2 years and should be the rotation's workhorse.

Moyer is beginning his 23rd season in the majors and his 2nd full season in Philly. The 45-yr old isn't what he once was, but he has still thrown 200+ innings for 7 straight seasons. His 5.01 ERA was his highest in 3 years, and strangely, he pitched worse away from the Phillies' hitter-friendly ballpark. He should do fine as the middle man in the rotation.

Hamels is the young stud every team hopes they will develop in their farm system. And he's left-handed to boot. Having just turned 24, the Phillies are looking for even bigger things this year from their soon-to-be ace. Hamels went 15-5, 3.39 last year while striking out 177 in 183 1-3 innings.

Kendrick burst on to the scene last year, making 20 starts in his rookie year. His 10-4 record and 3.87 ERA gave him a 5th place finish in the ROY voting.

Eaton came back from injury to make 30 starts last year, with not very good results. He finished .500 (10-10) and posted an ERA just over 6. The Phillies will hope someone can push him out of that final spot.

One of the pitchers hoping to step up is Chad Durbin, who was signed as a free agent. The 30-yr old had some moderate success as a spot starter for the Tigers in '07. Another candidate for the final spot will be another Durbin- J.D., no relation to Chad. J.D. is another swing man who can either start or relieve, though he has not had success at the major league level.


Nationals

Guaranteed Spots: Shawn Hill, Matt Chico, John Patterson, Jason Bergmann, John Lannan

That should be the starting 5 barring injury- but that's a big "what if". Patterson, Bergmann, and Hill missed large chunks of last season.

Hill was 4-5, 3.42 in a major league career high 97.1 innings pitched. The Nats hope to see the pitcher who posted a 2.68 ERA at Harrisburg ('AA') in 2006.

Chico, just 24, had a semi-successful rookie season, throwing a team-high 167 innings. His 4.63 ERA was slightly better on the road.

After an outstanding 2005, Patterson made just 15 appearances over the next 2 years after having season-ending arm surgeries. He's ready for spring training and the Nats are hoping for a return to prior form.

Bergmann had a decent year, going 6-6, 4.45 in 21 starts. But the native of Neptune, NJ (and a Rutgers attendee) must cut down on his walks and gopher balls allowed. He was hampered last year by hamstring and elbow injuries.

The Nats hope that their young, big lefty, Lannan asserts himself in the 5th spot. The 6'5" rookie made 6 starts, posting a 4.15 ERA, but walked more batters than he struck out. Lannan was very successful pitching at 3 different levels in the minors in '07 and now must translate that success to the majors.

Former Yankee Tyler Clippard along with Collin Balester, Ross Detwiler and Garrett Mock will be trying to make their mark during spring training.


Braves

Guaranteed Spots: John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Tim Hudson, Chuck James

The soon to be 41-yr old Smoltz led the team with a 3.11 ERA and struck out 197. The right-hander (14-8 last season) has put up three straight 200+ inning seasons after returning from the closer role. Barring an injury there's no reason to think he won't put up similar numbers this year.

The prodigal son has returned home, but Glavine is not the same pitcher he was in his Atlanta glory days. Glavine still puts up 200 inning seasons, but walks more hitters and gives up more home runs. He had no fully consistent seasons during his time as a Met. And of course, his final start with the playoffs hanging in the balance was a complete disaster.

Hudson led the team with 16 wins and 224.1 innings pitched. It's hard to believe this will be his 10th season in the majors. His success will help make or break the Braves this season.

James is a solid back end rotation guy; his 11-10, 4.24 mark can be improved upon, but the Braves would probably take the same season this year.

The Braves are hoping that Mike Hampton is healthy enough for a spot in the rotation, but if not, Jo Jo Reyes, Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Bennett and Buddy Carlyle will do battle for the final spot.



Marlins

Guaranteed Spots: Scott Olsen, Andrew Miller, Sergio Mitre, Mark Hendrickson

Olsen just turned 24, and has shown a lot of promise in his 1st two years in the majors. Unfortunately, his maturity level still has some catching up to do. The Marlins need more of the '06 version of Olsen, rather than the '07 model.

Miller was one of the keys in the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis deal. Miller, still just 22 when the season opens, had mixed results in his 13 starts for the Tigers last year (5-5, 5.63, 56K's in 64 IP). But the kid is only in his 2nd full pro season after a standout career at the U. of North Carolina.

Mitre has a world of talent, but has been oft injured. He made 27 starts last year, eclipsing 100 innings for the first time, and posted a 4.65 ERA. The fish hope he improves upon those numbers this year.

Hendrickson came over as a free agent after 1+ seasons as a Dodger. He split a mediocre season between the pen and rotation, making 15 starts out of this 39 appearances. He's a good back of the rotation guy if you have a good front end. That remains to be seen in Florida.

The 5th spot in the rotation is really up in the air. Josh Johnson is coming off Tommy John surgery and probably won't pitch this season. Anibel Sanchez had surgery for a torn labrum and will probably be starting the season in the minors or extended spring training. Ricky Nolasco had elbow problems that may push him to the bullpen.

That leaves inexperienced prospects to make the rotation or the Marlins could sign a low price free agent that is still available to fill the final spot.

Ranking the Rotations

1. Mets
2. Braves
3. Phillies
4. Marlins
5. Nationals

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