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Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Yankees vs. Red Sox - The Paper War (Part I)

The Yankees will meet their arch-rivals, the Boston Red Sox, 19 times during the 2006 regular season with a possibility of up to another 7 games in post-season play. While we are still 2 weeks away from the start of Spring Training, fans and the media are already talking about the number of changes in both camps.

The Red Sox said goodbye to Johnny Damon, Edgar Renteria, Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller, Doug Mirabelli, Mike Myers, and hello to Coco Crisp, Mike Lowell, Mark Loretta, Josh Beckett, Alex Gonzalez, JT Snow, Julian Tavarez, Josh Bard, John Flaherty, David Riske and Rudy Seanez. David Wells or Matt Clement could still go and there will be speculation all year long about Manny Ramirez.

The Yankees jettisoned Kevin Brown, Tom Gordon, Tino Martinez, John Flaherty, Ruben Sierra, Felix Rodriguez, Tony Womack, and brought in Kyle Farnsworth, Octavio Dotel, Johnny Damon, Mike Myers, Kelly Stinnett, Ron Villone, and Miguel Cairo (Al Leiter was signed to a minor league deal, but it unlikely to make the team - God willing). There is a possibility that Carl Pavano could be dealt as well, and the Yankees aren’t necessarily satisfied with Jason Giambi, Andy Phillips, and Bernie Williams as their 1B/DH triumvirate.

The two most important acquisitions of the post-season may have been the Yankees re-signing General Manager Brian Cashman and the Red Sox, after months of turmoil, bringing back Theo Epstein as their GM.

Okay, time to look at the position by position breakdown - as well as a Yankee pre-Spring Training preview. We’ll start today with the infield.

First Base


Jason Giambi vs.
JT SnowKevin Youkilis


Jason Giambi - 2005 was a strange year for Giambi. First there was the apology for nothing - well at least nothing that Giambi would publicly admit to. Then he was close to being sent to the minors (if not for his contract, he could have been released) after hitting just .231 with 6 extra base hits through May. Giambi’s only saving grace was a .345 On-Base Percentage (OBP) as he drew 21 free passes in the first two months. As the baseball coroner was about to pronounce him dead, something suddenly happened as the warm weather arrived in June. Giambi started getting hits. June’s singles (he still only had 5 extra base hits in June) turned into an explosive month of July. Giambi hit 14 of his 32 home runs, batted .355, with a .974 slugging percentage, and a ridiculous OPS (On-Base + Slugging) of 1.498. Over the last 2 full months, Giambi only hit in the .250s, with a combined 13 home runs, and continued to get free passes at a high rate, with 49 combined walks. A very disconcerting stat was just 3 doubles in those 2 months, and only 14 for the year. Giambi is a liability as a 1st Baseman. He’s an adequate fielder, who is pretty good at scooping throws out of the dirt, but is a bit “Knoblauchian” with his own throwing ability. The Yankees are going to count heavily on Giambi returning to as close as possible to his steroid enhanced form. Whether the 35-year old can achieve that remains to be seen.

JT Snow - Although the former Yankee prospect hit .327 in 2004, he’s not counted on any more to be a big run producer. That being said, his OPS the last 3 years has been .806, .958, and .708, and the Red Sox are probably counting on the soon to be 38 year-old to play 140+ games at 1st Base - something has not done since 2002. Snow, who had a rough off-season with the passing of his Dad, football great Jack Snow, has a sparking .996 career fielding percentage.

ADDED 2/15 - Terry Francona has decided to split time between Snow and Kevin Youkilis. This may be the first real chance for Youkilis to show what he can do. He's a high on-base percentage guy with average power. He'll be turning 27 during Spring Training, so this could be his last chance to prove himself with the Sox.

Advantage - Giambi - Giambi gets the hitting advantage, Snow the defensive advantage, with Giambi taking the overall edge because he can be the difference maker with his bat.

Second Base

Robinson Cano vs.
Mark Loretta


Cano was a huge surprise to the Yankees in 2005. After being rushed to Columbus in 2004 to showcase him for a trade (the failed 2004 Randy Johnson negotiation), Cano was recalled in May, 2005 as the Yankees slumped and looked for some spark. They found one in Cano. After struggling at the plate and with his nerves through May, Cano forced his way into Rookie of the Year talk with an outstanding summer. Save for a .207 slump in August, which probably cost him the award, The Cano Kid hit .336 for June, July, and September, with 11 home runs and 44 RBI. He saved his best for the stretch run in September, hitting .381/5/16 with a 1.040 OPS. Cano also didn’t shrink from the spotlight, driving in 3 runs in his first post-season game. In 2006, The Yankees will look for Robinson (I refuse to call him Robbie, so there) to improve on his .252 home average, his glove work, and his mental approach, both at the plate (only 16 walks last season) and in the field (too nonchalant at times and forgetful of the fundamentals).

Mark Loretta was acquired in a steal of a deal from the San Diego Padres for veteran catcher Doug Mirabelli. The 34-year old missed 57 games with a heel injury last season, but did manage to hit .280 with a .360 OBP. Finally getting the chance to play full-time, Loretta put together back-to-back career years in 2003 and 2004, averaging .325 with 14 HRs and 74 RBI. If he can return to that form, this could become one of the best deals the Red Sox ever made.

Advantage - Even. Cano is up against the sophomore jinx and Loretta is coming to a new league and coming off an injury plagued season. Too early to call a winner.

Shortstop

Derek Jeter vs.
Alex Gonzalez


(This is based on today’s report that Gonzalez has agreed to a 1-year deal with the Red Sox.)

Derek Jeter - The Captain. Some stat driven Yankee fans complain because Jeter has not put up the same numbers he did from 1998-2001, coupled with his big contract. First off, since when does a Yankee fan care about what a player is getting paid? If they do, they should go root for the Kansas City Royals. He was still criticized by some uninformed fans last year. All he did was go out and hit .309/19/70 with 122 runs scored, 77 walks, and an .839 OPS…as a leadoff hitter! Yes, he doesn’t steal as much since he destroyed his shoulder on opening night, 2003, and he still strikes out way too much (117 last year), but whether hitting leadoff or 2nd (probably will return there with Damon’s acquisition), Jeter will give you everything he’s got, every inning, every game, every season. Those who disagree can kiss my ever-widening ass.

Alex Gonzalez - The career National Leaguer (not to be confused with the other free agent Alex Gonzalez) brings a .245 career batting average to the Red Sox, along with some potential pop (23 HRs in 2004), and a pretty slick glove. Gonzalez has spent his entire 8 year career with Florida and will have to adjust to AL pitching. Then again, with the depth of the Red Sox line up, he shouldn’t have to be counted on to produce too much offensively. His biggest adjustment may have to be the lousy Boston infield. No, not his teammates, but the actual infield. The Red Sox and their opponents both complained about the condition of the Fenway playing surface that could have accounted for Edgar Renteria’s career high 30 errors last season. Barring any changes, Gonzalez will have to make the same adjustment.

Advantage - Easily, Jeter


Third Base

Alex Rodriguez vs.
Mike Lowell

A-Rod is coming off an MVP season. He finally relaxed at the plate, hitting .321 with 48 HRs and 130 RBI. In addition, he scored 124 runs and stole 21 bases. Yankee Stadium is tough on right-handed hitters, but A-Rod was oblivious, hitting .351 with 26 dingers, 69 ribbies, and a 1.113 OPS. Rodriguez struggled in the field in the early going as he let the ball play him more often than not. He excelled over the final months though, with just 12 errors overall, and could compete with Eric Chavez for the gold glove this year. Where A-Rod needs to improve is in the post-season or despite the regular season numbers, he’s useless. The Yankees could have just sent a hologram to the plate against the Angels in the ALDS. That’s how invisible Rodriguez was. He had just 2 hits in 15 at-bats, with 1 extra base hit and no RBI. A-Rod needs to find some way to relax this season as well as cut down on the often long swing (he struck out a career high 139 times last season), or he will never truly be accepted by the Yankee faithful.

Mike Lowell, like Snow a one-time Yankee prospect, suffered through a season long slump that saw his offensive numbers plummet like the stock market in ’29. There have been reports that a bad back was the cause, though Lowell has downplayed it. Despite having 500 at-bats, Lowell managed to hit only 8 home runs and drove in 58 runs. He also hit a career low .236. As Yankee fans know from watching the decline of Don Mattingly, a chronic bad back can nearly or completely destroy a career. From 2000 - 2004, Lowell average 24 home runs and 94 RBI. Lowell still played reasonably well in the field, but he has a huge question mark on his back as he brings his questionable health and big contract to Boston. If healthy, this could turn out to be a huge move (remember, this guy came back from testicular cancer). If not, the Red Sox will try Kevin Youkilis and anyone else they can think of to man the hot corner.

Advantage - A-Rod


Tomorrow - Outfield and DH
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